Work more, talk less: lesson for BJP

NK SINGH

The BJP in Madhya Pradesh is certainly not in a position to rejoice over the party’s victory in Tripura and Nagaland. Its spin doctors are propagating the myth that defeat in Mungaoli and Kolaras assembly by-elections does not matter because the constituencies they lost were traditional Congress strongholds.

Facts do not support this narrative. The Congress had won Mungaoli only five times out of the 13 elections held there until now. Similarly, it captured Kolaras only 6 out of 13 times. As recently as 2008 assembly elections, both constituencies had favoured BJP.

True, the two seats form part of Congress satrap Jyotiraditya Scindia’s parliamentary constituency. So suffering a defeat there would have been a big loss of face for him. It is also true that Congress barely managed to retain both seats, with a vastly reduced margin.

Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan patted himself on the back for putting up a good fight: “We lost there in 2013 election even when there was a BJP wave,” he said. The opponents promptly pointed out that Congress managed to retain the seats despite a no-holds-barred campaign by BJP.

Chouhan and eight of his ministers, besides a handful of senior BJP leaders, started visiting the area as early as five months ago, even since the seats fell vacant. 

44 rallies, 111 roads shows, 23 ministers

In December, before the announcement of election, he visited the constituencies eight times, organising tribal and farmers meets! Subsequently, he camped in the two constituencies for almost a fortnight, addressing 44 rallies and holding 111 roads shows, forgoing his favourite style of campaigning by choppers.  

He also deployed 23 of his 32 ministers in the area. Normal Government functioning had virtually come to a halt for the duration of the campaign.

The Government loosened its purse strings, announcing projects worth Rs 1,500 crore. The impoverished Saharia tribe command 50,000 votes in the two constituencies. The cabinet announced financial aid of Rs 1,000 per month to each Saharia family to combat malnutrition, spending Rs 4.50 crore in Shivpuri district alone.  It also amended law to give direct recruitment in government jobs to Saharias.

The chief minister promised to bring “development of five years in five months” – the incumbent MLAs’ term will expire by November – to Kolaras and Mungaloi, among the most under developed areas in the state. In a clear attempt to sway voters, the chief minister included three legislators from OBC communities into his cabinet after notifications for elections were issued, overriding Congress protest.

Scindia vs Scindia 

It is an open secret that Chouhan has put his cabinet colleague Yashodhara Raje Scindia, Jyotiraditya’s aunt, in the doghouse. He openly humiliated the Scindia clan, the erstwhile rulers of Gwalior, last year by attacking them for siding with the British in 1857 war of independence.

But this election he dusted off a sulking Yashodhara, making her incharge of Kolaras, and put a helicopter at her disposal, in an attempt to counter her nephew’s influence.

Says political analyst Manoj Misra: “Congress complain revealed 14,800 fake voters just a week before polling. Seven officers were suspended, one collector was shifted and the election commission issued reprimands and a rap on the knuckle to the chief minister and two of his senior cabinet colleagues for violation of model code of conduct.”

With BJP resorting to a high voltage electioneering, and Scindia defending his turf spiritedly, it turned into a battle of prestige. The Congress described it as the semi final before December’s Big Battle. 

To put Kolaras and Mungaoli results in perspective, it is the fourth successive defeat for BJP in assembly by-election since last April. As the year started, the Congress registered an impressive victory in civic elections. If that does not indicate anti-incumbency, what does?

Rotten statecraft, bad politics

BJP’s famed election managers have three lessons to learn from this demoralising defeat.

One, the BJP campaign suffered from overkill. The party has probably not heard of the adage that too many cooks spoil the broth. The 23 ministers deployed in the area were running like headless chicken with practically little to do except keeping busy their own party workers who should have been out in the field. Often they ended up addressing poorly attended meetings of a few dozen urchins and housewives hastily assembled at village squares.

Two, BJP may recall the maxim that an overdose of election time largesse is not only rotten statecraft but also bad politics because it betrays nervousness. If election time goodies could ensure victory, no government would ever be ousted from power in a democracy.

Three, mere promises and announcements are not going to cut ice with the electorate. In the first 10 years of his tenure, Chouhan made 8,000 promises, at the rate of two announcements a day. During the last three years, as he settled down, it slowed down to an average of 1.3 promises a day.

The lesson is: work more, talk less.

Powers That Be, my column in DB Post of 5 March 2018

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